International brawl looms over Arctic rights

By Lorraine Mallinder, in Montréal

As the polar ice cap continues to shrink, the five nations surrounding the Arctic Ocean are hurriedly positioning themselves for what is shaping up to be one of the biggest geopolitical brawls of the coming years.

Beneath the thinning ice lies the tantalising prospect of up to a quarter of the world’s untapped oil and gas reserves and the promise of new shipping routes between East and West. It’s enough to turn the heads of even the most placid nations. The countries concerned – Canada, Denmark (through Greenland), Norway, Russia and the US – are currently mapping the seabed in a bid to push their maritime borders beyond the existing 200-mile economic zones around their coasts. 

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), countries are entitled to extend their sovereignty over the underwater ridges and formations connected to their continental shelves. The UN is expected to rule on economic rights by 2020. However, it remains unclear whether any UN decision will actually be respected, particularly by the two heavyweights in the Arctic gang – Russia and the US. The UN has a track record of putting forward agreements that countries ignore – for an example of this, look no further than the Kyoto Protocol.

Russia’s demands far exceed any limits that the UN would be likely to sanction. It says that the underwater Lomonosov Ridge extends its territory by an area the size of France, Germany and Italy combined. Two years ago, it planted a flag on the seabed to stake its claim to the underwater spoils. Previous US administrations refused to ratify UNCLOS, presumably because they believed the country would not be able to claim sufficient oil and gas exploration rights under the convention. President Barack Obama has made more positive noises, but until he signs on the dotted line, the future remains uncertain.

Canada, which has been flexing some military muscle in the region of late, feels especially worried about its claimed ownership of the Northwest Passage, the fabled sea route linking Atlantic to Pacific which passes between Canadian islands. Its claims have been rejected by a number of countries, including the US, which is thought to regularly send submarines to the area for military testing exercises without asking permission. Canada has also had territorial spats with Denmark, but the two have recently found common cause, joining forces to prove that the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of their continental shelves. This places them in direct competition with Russia.

The European Union (EU), which includes Arctic states Denmark, Finland and Sweden, also wants to stamp its authority on the region. Last year, it released a far-reaching discussion paper setting out its views on sustainable exploitation of oil, gas and mineral wealth. A significant amount of political and financial support for exploration projects will flow from the EU, which is desperate to free itself of its continued dependency on Russian energy. Norway, which has had its own skirmishes with Russia, is expected to co-operate closely with the bloc. The faster the ice melts, the more frequent the tactical manoeuvres are likely to become. Of the five pretenders, Russia is by far the most provocative and attention-grabbing, but the other four are just as interested in securing as large a slice of the pie as possible. None of these countries will relinquish their claims without a fight.