Antarctica’s ice is melting – but will its protective treaty melt too?

The retreat of south polar ice is raising some concern that the Antarctic Treaty, which protects the continent from development and which celebrates its 50th anniversary this year, could be threatened by a global desire for development. Signed by 45 nations, it committed leading powers to working in co-operation in Antarctica (defined as the area south of 60 degrees latitude), observing a moratorium on mineral extraction in the region. The parties, which include the UK, declared that the Antarctic is “a natural reserve, devoted to peace and science.”

The Antarctic Treaty was reinforced in 1991 by the Madrid Protocol, which banned all mining until 2041. Yet the move was made at a time when it was assumed the climate would change little and conditions would remain hazardous.  Models project a warming of a few degrees Celsius over much of continental Antarctica over coming decades.

Warming is also predicted in and over the oceans surrounding Antarctica. Where warmer ocean waters come into contact with the continental ice sheets, loss of ice from the continent will be accelerated. As a result, the British Antarctic Survey believes that sea ice cover may decline by around 25%.

The Amundsen Sea Embayment, one of the three major ice drainage basins of the West Antarctic ice sheet, is also causing concern. The bedrock beneath the ice is a long way below sea-level and the ice is only kept in place because it is thick enough to rest on the bed. Thinning of the ice around the coast could lead to glacier acceleration and further thinning of the ice sheet. “There’s no coincidence that the increasing ease of access for grants for scientific research in Antarctica is linked to the growing awareness that warming is likely to diminish the protective value of the Antarctic Treaty,” said a scientist for a major research organisation with a long-standing presence on the continent.

Iron ore, coal, and other minerals have been found in the Antarctic, but their abundance, or paucity, remains uncertain. Several organisations, including the US Geological Survey, have concluded – from analytical studies rather than direct observation – that oil and natural gas exist beneath the continental shelf, but commercial-size deposits have yet to be identified. For now, mining in Antarctica remains highly uneconomical. Coal has been found in two regions in Antarctica – the Transantarctic Mountains and Prince Charles Mountains; iron ore is widespread in surface rocks in Antarctica and has been traced deep under the ice, but the iron content has been estimated at only 35%.

Geological engineering may be some ways off, but “softer” exploitation of Antarctica’s resources may be closer. Potential sources which have already identified, and which would be easier to access with warmer summers and retreating ice caps, include a glycoprotein which prevents Antarctic fish from freezing. Commercial use of the protein could extend the shelf life of frozen food and improve surgery and tissue transplants. Other sources include a green algae that could be used in cosmetic skin treatment; and a strain of yeast with anti-tumour properties.

 – photo credit Michael Van Woert, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration